M.E. Rinker, Sr. School of Construction Management

Dr. Flood and Dr. Shojaei receive Best Paper Award

Dr. Alireza Shojaei (who graduated from the Rinker School with a PhD this summer) and Prof. Ian Flood (Holland Professor in the Rinker School) received the Best Paper Award for their paper: “Extending the Portfolio and Strategic Planning Horizon by Stochastic Forecasting of Unknown Future Projects”, 7th International Conference on Advanced Communications and Computation, June 25 – 29, 2017- Venice, Italy.   The paper is concerned with the development and evaluation of a tool for predicting future streams of projects within a select sector of the construction market, for use by contractors in strategic planning and extended portfolio management. While it is not possible to predict the actual stream of construction projects that will become available for bidding, the tool is designed to predict the statistical characteristics of this stream, such as the expected frequency of projects in a given period, expected durations, expected costs, and the corresponding variances for these values.  Knowing statistically the availability and key characteristics of projects several years into the future will allow contractors to make more informed decisions about longer term strategies for developing their businesses and investing in resources.  The study both identifies the historical factors in the market that are strong predictors of the profile of future project streams and evaluates alternative modeling approaches to the problem. A case study is presented developing, validating and testing the project stream generator for design-bid-build highway construction projects let by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT).